Because basketball and football rely on systems rather than a summation of individuals, “coaching” in basketball and football is essential---you needn’t have the most talent to win the most games (just ask the New England Patriots, Detroit Pistons or George Mason University), because it is possible to develop a system which makes that raw “talent” into a cohesive force which is better than more “talented” teams (come to think of it, ask Team USA).
In baseball, you cannot do this. Because of the individual nature of the events in baseball, a team really is simply the sum of its parts, and cannot by some cohesive force play above its ability. The key to understanding this is understanding the following: it can often look like a baseball team is playing above its talent, but you cannot confuse this with luck.
There is surely luck involved in other sports too; I am not arguing that there isn’t. However, I am referring less to the cases of teams like George Mason and more to cases like the Detroit Pistons and New England Patriots. The Pistons and Patriots have not been “lucky”---they’ve legitimately been the best team in their respective leagues. However, few would argue that they’ve been the “most talented” team. In the NBA and NFL “best” and “most talented” do not always go together; in baseball, I will argue, they do.
Baseball is a game of failure, and the fundamental difference in production between good and bad players is vastly smaller in baseball than in other sports. For example, Player A with a .400 on-base percentage is vastly superior to Player B with a .300 on-base percentage. Even in this extreme example, Player A will only succeed in not making an out 10 additional times per 100 plate appearances than Player B. Usually, the differences between players are much smaller, even on teams whose win totals differ dramatically.
Because the fundamental differences in success rates are not really that high, when you take this down to a minute level---such as an individual game or a short series---the differences are barely perceptible. Player A’s .400 OBP means that in five plate appearances, he will reach base about 2 times. Player B’s .300 OBP means that in five plate appearances, he will reach base about 1.5 times. Every other game, Player A and Player B will reach base the same amount of times in five plate appearances, despite their 100-point difference in their ability to get on base.
Certainly, over the course of 162 games, the differences between Player A and Player B will be readily evident, and Player A’s team will benefit significantly more than Player B’s team. However, in one game, the differences are barely perceptible, meaning that Player B’s team has a decent chance of winning that one game. In other words, bad teams have a much better chance of beating good teams in one game of baseball than they do in one game of basketball or football.
Extended to the playoffs, the “lesser” of two baseball teams has a much greater chance of winning a playoff series in baseball than in basketball or football for the same reason. This is not due to some cohesive force like chemistry that combines to make the “lesser” baseball team the better team, this is due to chance and luck---when teams get their hits, for example, or whether a home run occurs with no one on base or with the bases loaded. Players liking each other or getting along cannot increase their ability to get a hit with runners on base, or add velocity to their staff’s fastballs.
Tshe very nature of the sport of baseball is that most of the time, most batters are going to “fail” in their attempt to get on base. In a small sample size, the difference between the amount of times a good player will get on base, as compared to the amount of times a bad player will get on base, is very small. Thus, the chance that the “better” team will win one specific game or a five- or seven-game series is relatively low. “Chemistry” or “managing” is often attributed as an explanation for what seems to be a surprising result, when in actuality the chance of that “surprising” result occurring is much higher than people realized.
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